For all the buzz building about Apple’s iPhone launch next week, success is not a sure bet, according to a survey released Tuesday. “The first million, no problem,” said Chris Hazelton, senior analyst, mobile technology and trends with IDC, talking about iPhone sales. “Interest in this has been building for years. But the ‘08 goal [of 10 million sold]…that will depend on the iPhone experience. If it’s not rock solid….”
The IDC survey, which polled online users researching their next cell phone purchase, found a majority were interested in the iPhone but also revealed several hurdles to mass acceptance. About 10 percent, for example, said they were willing to pay full price — the iPhone will list at $499 and $599 for the 4GB and 8GB models, respectively — and sign a two-year service contract with AT&T, the iPhone’s sole carrier. That’s close to the estimate offered by a survey detailed yesterday by M:Metrics, a Seattle research firm, which said that 9 percent, or about 19 million, of all U.S. cell phone subscribers pegged their iPhone purchase intent at high.
Although Hazelton didn’t argue with M:Metrics’ numbers, he stressed the snags that could limit the iPhone to a much smaller group than Apple and AT&T hope.
“The exclusivity of AT&T will be the largest barrier,” said Hazelton. “Only some people will have timed it right so that they can leave their carrier and won’t have to pay an early termination fee.” Others, the survey found, were unwilling or unable to eat the penalties.
AT&T’s rumored five-year exclusivity agreement with Apple will give the two companies the time to “weed out” other carriers from consumers interested in the iPhone, he noted, but again, that could be a slower process than the companies have planned on. “And then there’s the price of the iPhone itself, and the need for a data plan on top of a voice plan,” Hazelton said. “That’s probably $80-plus a month right there. People will pay it if they want the iPhone experience, but moving forward, that may be simply too expensive.”
If the iPhone doesn’t deliver on its promises, though, all might be moot.
Source: InfoWorld